Some day, after all this, we need to open a big bottle of wine and you have to tell me how you do all of this. You. Are. Amazing.
I mean - I'm high energy but you put me to shame AND inspire me every day to do more. We will win bc of people like you, dear Jess. A million thanks. 🩵
Not only did Trump lose in 2020, he lost in 2016. Only the last vestige of human enslavement put him in office. Not his ‘popularity’, certainly not his ‘policies’, but the electoral college. He lost by millions of votes, both times.
Trump will lose BIGLY (again) and be the LEAST popular nominee ever. He will lose the popular vote by 10-12 million votes at least this November. Mark my words. 😉
Let's give Harris/Walz 100 million votes! We can do it! 💪
Harris and Walz brought us optimism and hope. They've reminded Americans that together, we can do anything. There's no stopping us now!
Let's wear these kinds of shirts in front of our MAGAs neighbors 👇
Morning Jessica, I was so knocked out by the video you and Robert Hubbell made featuring Drew Kromer, Chair of the Mecklenberg Co. Dems, that I signed up for last night's phone bank. The trainers/leaders were awesome, so patient with newbies, and the phone bank itself was so smart. We were asking Dems or left-leaning unaffiliated voters to join a door knocking effort in their Zip Code next weekend -- a big ask -- and every one of us callers had one or more voters say YES! MeckDems are working hard for the upcoming election as well as building for an infrastructure for future ones. Here's a link to sign up!https://substack.com/redirect/c3a2dce0-05ae-40ea-bb14-362f2feb13b9?j=eyJ1IjoiZ3gwaCJ9.TmgO3HMAReCVJgz1UZhfVUgCSWNsx9eBU11O-qYACno
Thank you, Kate. That post really motivated me, too. I'm already overcommitted with, well, commitments (heh), but I donated to that effort. Jessica, if you're reading, it's because of YOU that I even knew about it. So thank you!!
Why I am very optimistic about Nov... It's not the polls... It's the 2020 numbers.
Here's my back of the envelope forecast:
The Joe Biden coalition of voters beat Donald Trump by 7 million votes in 2020, +81 million to 74 million, that is + 7 million votes! So the first question in forecasting this Nov's outcome is...Has Harris/Walz pulled the Biden coalition back together?
Miraculously, the answer is yes. Mostly..
Mostly means 3.5 million Biden voters have passed away based on mortality averages and it's likely 5-6 million voters simply can't vote for a Black woman for president. This includes Black and Latino men and White guys who believe a woman leader is either "weak" or "strident", both unattractive attributes in a President.
This leaves Kamala with 72-73 million votes from the Biden coalition. What is she likely to add? 7 million young first time voters, 3 million activated, pro-reproductive freedom white women voters, 1 million extra Black woman voters, 2 million Never Trump Republicans, Independents and Haley voters.
This brings Kamal's vote total to 85-86 million. And there is potential for more Harris votes because Trump is such a more deranged, repellant candidate this cycle than he was in 2020.
And what does Trump have? Trump starts with 71 million because 3 million of his voters have passed away. He adds maybe 3 million of those voters who cannot vote for a Black woman, 2 million young first time voters plus 1 million Black and Latino male voters. That gives Trump 75-77 million votes tops.
I think this total is optimistic because, as I said above, Trump is a more deranged, repellant candidate than he was in 2020. It's very likely that Trump will lose more voters and not get to the 74 million he got in 2020.
We have at least 10-15 million volunteers working day and night to put Kamala over the top. Trump has Trump and a very small ground game.
With my forecast, Kamala is likely to win the popular vote by 6%-7%. 53% to 47%. Enough to win the electoral vote with 4 swing states. And what about those scary polls? The polls have become particularly unstable but are are trending in Harris direction. Harris is up by 4-5% in more polls. If she wins by +6% the pollsters can say it was in the margin of error so why were we so irate? Actually because political polls, no matter how unbiased they try to be, partisan political tools that journalists use to tell election stories.
We just have to remember, polls don't win elections, voters do! So we have to keep going at 150% and sleep after Nov. 5th
Glad to hear you were able to give away those 11,000 postcards you had! I've tried offering my 500 GOTV postcards here several times but no takers, and next tried the Sister District in my area but they haven't answered my email yet after 2 days so maybe I will ship them out to you tomorrow if still no interest from them.
I'm only doing the letters through votefwd.org bc I still have lots of Forever stamps and the other supplies. I feel like time is getting short since those need to go out before Oct. 29, but I have most of next week free to get out as many letters as I can.
YOU are amazing and I hope you are taking some time for yourself to rest a bit every day. Take care!
I have your address already from a previous convo, still nothing from the local Sister District so will confirm shipment to you in the next 24 hrs. Glad you can take them!
The onslaught of hatred and lies coming from Trump and his followers - or should I say His Believers- fires us up to volunteer, donate and remind others how important voting is.
We all need some laughter and a few doses of joy sprinkled throughout our days/week to remind us who we are and that WE ARE fighting the good fight! It lightens our hearts. It gives me energy. I believe Kamala will win.
But when we DO WIN it will not be the end of Trumps rhetoric of vitriol and hate. He will fire up his base telling them the voting was rigged and stolen. We are going to need to be energized to continue no matter what he conjures up.
Thank you for all the encouragement and help navigating the current political situation. But reading this list gave me pause. If I find there is a new grassroots organization called "Porn stars and producers for Harris/Walz," I will have to take down my yard sign. I am anti-porn as well as pro-democracy. Hope there's still a political party I won't be kicked out of.
Some day, after all this, we need to open a big bottle of wine and you have to tell me how you do all of this. You. Are. Amazing.
I mean - I'm high energy but you put me to shame AND inspire me every day to do more. We will win bc of people like you, dear Jess. A million thanks. 🩵
That’s very kind of you, Heather. Thank you!
Not only did Trump lose in 2020, he lost in 2016. Only the last vestige of human enslavement put him in office. Not his ‘popularity’, certainly not his ‘policies’, but the electoral college. He lost by millions of votes, both times.
Trump will lose BIGLY (again) and be the LEAST popular nominee ever. He will lose the popular vote by 10-12 million votes at least this November. Mark my words. 😉
Let's give Harris/Walz 100 million votes! We can do it! 💪
Harris and Walz brought us optimism and hope. They've reminded Americans that together, we can do anything. There's no stopping us now!
Let's wear these kinds of shirts in front of our MAGAs neighbors 👇
teespring.com/stores/libtees-2
Just imagine their reaction! 🤣
Let's win a landslide.
Morning Jessica, I was so knocked out by the video you and Robert Hubbell made featuring Drew Kromer, Chair of the Mecklenberg Co. Dems, that I signed up for last night's phone bank. The trainers/leaders were awesome, so patient with newbies, and the phone bank itself was so smart. We were asking Dems or left-leaning unaffiliated voters to join a door knocking effort in their Zip Code next weekend -- a big ask -- and every one of us callers had one or more voters say YES! MeckDems are working hard for the upcoming election as well as building for an infrastructure for future ones. Here's a link to sign up!https://substack.com/redirect/c3a2dce0-05ae-40ea-bb14-362f2feb13b9?j=eyJ1IjoiZ3gwaCJ9.TmgO3HMAReCVJgz1UZhfVUgCSWNsx9eBU11O-qYACno
Thank you, Kate. That post really motivated me, too. I'm already overcommitted with, well, commitments (heh), but I donated to that effort. Jessica, if you're reading, it's because of YOU that I even knew about it. So thank you!!
Aw you make me so happy! Thank you!
Oh my gosh thank you for doing that! Amazing!
Thank you for your unwavering optimism and concrete ways to make a difference! Action does reduce anxiety for sure!!!
Thank you for being here, Cameron!
Why I am very optimistic about Nov... It's not the polls... It's the 2020 numbers.
Here's my back of the envelope forecast:
The Joe Biden coalition of voters beat Donald Trump by 7 million votes in 2020, +81 million to 74 million, that is + 7 million votes! So the first question in forecasting this Nov's outcome is...Has Harris/Walz pulled the Biden coalition back together?
Miraculously, the answer is yes. Mostly..
Mostly means 3.5 million Biden voters have passed away based on mortality averages and it's likely 5-6 million voters simply can't vote for a Black woman for president. This includes Black and Latino men and White guys who believe a woman leader is either "weak" or "strident", both unattractive attributes in a President.
This leaves Kamala with 72-73 million votes from the Biden coalition. What is she likely to add? 7 million young first time voters, 3 million activated, pro-reproductive freedom white women voters, 1 million extra Black woman voters, 2 million Never Trump Republicans, Independents and Haley voters.
This brings Kamal's vote total to 85-86 million. And there is potential for more Harris votes because Trump is such a more deranged, repellant candidate this cycle than he was in 2020.
And what does Trump have? Trump starts with 71 million because 3 million of his voters have passed away. He adds maybe 3 million of those voters who cannot vote for a Black woman, 2 million young first time voters plus 1 million Black and Latino male voters. That gives Trump 75-77 million votes tops.
I think this total is optimistic because, as I said above, Trump is a more deranged, repellant candidate than he was in 2020. It's very likely that Trump will lose more voters and not get to the 74 million he got in 2020.
We have at least 10-15 million volunteers working day and night to put Kamala over the top. Trump has Trump and a very small ground game.
With my forecast, Kamala is likely to win the popular vote by 6%-7%. 53% to 47%. Enough to win the electoral vote with 4 swing states. And what about those scary polls? The polls have become particularly unstable but are are trending in Harris direction. Harris is up by 4-5% in more polls. If she wins by +6% the pollsters can say it was in the margin of error so why were we so irate? Actually because political polls, no matter how unbiased they try to be, partisan political tools that journalists use to tell election stories.
We just have to remember, polls don't win elections, voters do! So we have to keep going at 150% and sleep after Nov. 5th
💯!!
Where do you live? I'm in metro Boston but have been canvassing in NH. I'm hopeful but worried. Thank you for all the good news!! ❤️
I’m in Los Angeles.
Glad to hear you were able to give away those 11,000 postcards you had! I've tried offering my 500 GOTV postcards here several times but no takers, and next tried the Sister District in my area but they haven't answered my email yet after 2 days so maybe I will ship them out to you tomorrow if still no interest from them.
I'm only doing the letters through votefwd.org bc I still have lots of Forever stamps and the other supplies. I feel like time is getting short since those need to go out before Oct. 29, but I have most of next week free to get out as many letters as I can.
YOU are amazing and I hope you are taking some time for yourself to rest a bit every day. Take care!
I’d love those cards! email me!
I have your address already from a previous convo, still nothing from the local Sister District so will confirm shipment to you in the next 24 hrs. Glad you can take them!
Great thanks!
The TikTok Harris-Walz ad near the end of your post is pure gold! Appreciate your finding it for us!
Isn’t it great? Actually Jay Kuo posted that one in his wonderful Saturday newsletter. He’s one of my favorite Substackers.
Very cheering, just when I needed to take a deep breath. Thank you!
So glad I could help!
Ooooo. I love your MTG front screen...Best ever...the same question might be asked of all the MAGA faithful.
Omg, the day has started off with a bang because of you and your amazing work!!! Thank you for all you do! VOTE BLUE 💙💙💙💙💙💙
Thanks Janet!
I was getting ready to turn out the light and close my eyes - when I saw this post.
Read it - then saw and watched both videos- great ad!! Second one made me laugh - thanks for sharing !
Of course!
The onslaught of hatred and lies coming from Trump and his followers - or should I say His Believers- fires us up to volunteer, donate and remind others how important voting is.
We all need some laughter and a few doses of joy sprinkled throughout our days/week to remind us who we are and that WE ARE fighting the good fight! It lightens our hearts. It gives me energy. I believe Kamala will win.
But when we DO WIN it will not be the end of Trumps rhetoric of vitriol and hate. He will fire up his base telling them the voting was rigged and stolen. We are going to need to be energized to continue no matter what he conjures up.
A laugh, A smile, or a A hug feeds the soul.
Thank you so much for the amazing, vital, necessary work you do!
You’re very welcome! Back at you!
I am in the last two weeks of a visit to the Philippines, and am looking forward to an increasing intensity for the Harris/Walz campaign.
The closing video is priceless.
Thank you for all the encouragement and help navigating the current political situation. But reading this list gave me pause. If I find there is a new grassroots organization called "Porn stars and producers for Harris/Walz," I will have to take down my yard sign. I am anti-porn as well as pro-democracy. Hope there's still a political party I won't be kicked out of.