Chop Wood, Carry Water 1/16

WE are America.

Jan 16, 2024

Hi, all, and happy Tuesday.

Hope you had as restful a long weekend as possible under our many extenuating circumstances. Some of you are dealing with difficult weather conditions; I hope you’re managing OK. Some of you are sick—half the world seems to be. I hope you’re taking care of yourselves. Some of you are Jewish, Muslim or Ukrainian, and are deeply worried about wars in countries you have ties to. I hope you’re holding up OK.

All of us are eying the regional expansion of fighting in the Middle East with concern.

Every one of us, as well, just had to endure an interminable firehose of news about Iowa. IOWAIOWAIOWAIOWA! My God, it’s stunning to watch the mainstream media slaver over the ultimately unsurprising and relatively insignificant results of these caucuses. But slaver they did. For those of us who don’t care how 115,000 white Evangelicals in a red state vote it was hard to find a safe place to get news.

And when I say “insignificant” please don’t think I mean unimportant. Of course Donald Trump’s stranglehold on Republican party voters is important, and disturbing, and disheartening. I’m not whistling in the dark about it. But let’s be clear about a few things:

First, just over one hundred thousand voters in a sparsely populated, demographically aging, white, heavily Evangelical state voted. That’s a tiny number of people who represent a vanishingly small segment of the American population, and they didn’t even turn out with remarkable enthusiasm. Vote totals were down 70K, in fact, from 2016. To quote the Washington Post, furthermore:

Trump’s weakest performance was in the parts of Iowa that more closely resemble the rest of the country.

Right. Because Trump’s voters—say it loud for the folks in the back!—are not representative of the rest of the country. They are representative of a minority slice of it—a slice that is shrinking by the year. Please don’t forget it.

Second, of the folks who did turn out last night, 51% of them are still in the tank for Trump, yes. They gave him a resounding victory. That’s disturbing. It’s also deeply worrying that 65% of caucus voters don’t believe Biden won the election. (Insert forehead slap emoji here.) But half—HALF—of those voters who turned out in sub-zero temperatures and voted publicly voted for someone other than Trump. This, as

Antonia Scatton

points out this morning, is not good news for him.

More encouragingly still, 20% of Haley’s Iowa voters say they would vote for Biden over Trump. In general polling those numbers are even higher—43% of her voters will go to Biden. That’s deeply encouraging, and in an election that will be decided on the margins, could be determinative.

Finally please recall that, as

Dan Pfeiffer

pointed out this morning, 32% of caucus participants believe that if convicted, Trump won’t be fit for the presidency. Even if half of those people mean what they say, this could spell real trouble for Trump, because he will almost certainly be convicted of something between now and the election.

And look. The most important thing to know is that, barring something truly unforeseen, Trump will be the nominee. We’ve known this forever. We’ve known his voters are cult followers. We’ve known they’re past saving (sorry, but they are). We’ve known his power over them is absolute. We’ve known the “fifth Avenue” thing is true. And we’ve known Republican lawmakers are a portrait in cowardice; they’ll fall into line behind him. They already have.

Let’s accept it and move on. To circle back around any of the above points and try to change them is a waste of our time. Trump is our opponent; it’s foul, but we know how to beat him. He’s been weakened considerably since 2020, and in 2020 we trounced him by 7 million votes.

Do we have things to worry about? Certainly. Tons of them. Will worrying help us win? No.

What will help? Reminding each other many times a day that there are millions more of us than there are of Trump’s voters. And that we are younger. More diverse. Smarter. Nimbler. And, most importantly, on the right side of every issue.

We should also remember that we’ve won nearly every election that mattered in the last 7 years.

Finally, we must remind ourselves—and every decent American we know— that HOPE IS AN ACTION. Worrying won’t save us, but action most certainly will.

We can do this. We will do it. Hold your heads high, know that you’re vital to this fight, and decide what small thing you’re going to do today to move the needle.

And when you hear another newscaster talking about Iowa?

Change the channel.

Call Your Senators (find yours here) 📲

Hi, I'm a constituent calling from [zip]. My name is ______.

I’m calling for two reasons today:

First, I strongly oppose the confirmation of Demetrios Kouzoukas, the Republican nominee for the Public Board of Trustees of Medicare and Social Security. A person who has benefitted from the corporate pillaging of government programs should not be placed in a position of authority over Medicare and Social Security. Will the Senator stop this disastrous appointment? [Read more about this here. Yikes.]

Also, I understand that a new Biden Administration rule would ensure that jointly employed workers can exercise their right to bargain collectively for better pay and benefits, and hold employers accountable when they violate workplace standards. But Congress is considering blocking that rule so corporate bosses can exploit workers with impunity? No way! I want the Senator to vote NO on H.J.Res.98. I’ll be watching his/her vote closely. Thanks. [H/T and more info]

Call Your House Rep (find yours here) 📲

Hi, I'm a constituent calling from [zip]. My name is _______.

First, I understand that the Senate has almost finalized a new immigration policy proposal but that Speaker Johnson is saying he won’t consider it until Trump is elected. This is outrageous. Our immigration system is in desperate need of help NOW that only Congress can give. Putting partisan politics over solving this problem is unforgivable.

Speaking of which, I am heartbroken and disgusted by the drowning deaths of a mother and her children in the Rio Grande this weekend. Greg Abbott owns these deaths—his Texas Military Department has control of the area where they happened and they did nothing to save these poor people. I’m sick over it. The federal government needs to stand up to Greg Abbott—he’s a sadist whose willingness to allow migrants to die is shocking. But more importantly the state of Texas is not in charge of the border—the federal government is. Please act like it. Thanks.

Extra Credit ✅

The Bohemian Benevolent & Literary Association in New York City is holding a Moms For Liberty event in their space on January 18th. Yuck!

BBLA – a cultural institution that receives city funding – shouldn’t host a group that works to stifle free expression and democracy by banning books and open discussion of issues they don’t like.

Please sign this petition asking them to cancel the event.

[H/T subscriber Ellen B.]

Get Smart! 📚

You’re invited to Force Multiplier’s LAUNCH 2024: ALL HANDS ON DECK.

The 2024 Presidential election is 10 months away and once again, there is so much at stake. The amazing folks at Force Multiplier have developed plans to help flip the House, hold the Senate, and win the White House. They want to share them with you and tell you how you can help!

Please join them at one of their two FREE Community Kick Off Events:

Tuesday, January 16, 8:30-9:30pm ET or

Wednesday, January 17, 7:00-8:00pm ET

Miscellany 📫

A researcher contacted me because she is looking for postcard writers to interview. Her immediate plan is to publish her findings in online publications, but she believes these interviews will be important for the historical record, too. She is interested in how interviewees got involved in postcard writing, their postcarding community, their thoughts on messaging and postcard design, and more.

The interview takes 1 - 1.5 hours and is conducted on Zoom. All interviews will be saved in an official archive.

If interested, email Robbin Warner robbinwarner@gmail.com.

Give 💰!

Great event tonight!

Airlift presents “Georgia on Our Minds,” Tuesday, January 16, at 5:00 p.m. Pacific/8:00 p.m. Eastern. You will hear from Steve Phillips, best-selling author of Black is the New White and How to Win the Civil War, along with organizers from Black Male Initiative Fund of Georgia. Learn why Georgia is critical for winning in 2024, and how BMIF plans to mobilize the all-important Black male constituency.

Airlift is an all-volunteer organization raising money for grassroots groups in key battleground states. Although this is a fundraiser, no donation is required to register or participate.

Win Races! 🗳

Oooh! Want to write letters to help Tom Suozzi win in NY-03?

Join a Swing Left letter writing Zoom party and receive Vote Forward-style letter templates and addresses for Suozzi’s race! Last day to request addresses is February 2nd! They have these parties five days a week between now and then.

Chop Wood, Save the Planet 🔥

Please join the Environmental Voter Project online this coming Wednesday, Jan. 17th at 8pm ET for an in-depth data briefing on the 4.8 million low propensity environmental voters they'll be mobilizing in 2024.

On a state-by-state basis, they'll brief us on the voters they're targeting, important dates, and the biggest political opportunities. If you like political data, this briefing is for you. I will definitely be there.

Please RSVP here. Hope to see you on Wednesday!

Resistbot Letter (new to Resistbot? Go here! And then here.) 💻

[To: ] [H/T] [Text SIGN PTQKKF to Resistbot at 50409 or via Apple Messages / WHATSAPP / MESSENGER]

As House and Senate negotiators finalize a tax package, I strongly urge you to demand that it include expanding the Child Tax Credit (CTC) to low-income children.

While this proposal wouldn’t go as far as the last time Congress expanded the CTC in 2021 as a part of President Biden’s American Rescue Plan, it is a step towards fixing the current CTC, which provides higher benefits to families earning $400,000 per year than to families earning $15,000.

There are currently 19 million children who do not receive the full credit (or any credit) because their families do not make enough money. The vast majority of these families have some paid income but are still left out of the full CTC. As reported, the proposed CTC expansion will reach 80% of those currently not getting the full CTC―and lift about 400,000 children above the federal poverty line. This would be an important―albeit incremental and temporary―step to shift tax policies and reduce poverty.

When the Child Tax Credit was expanded in 2021, child poverty fell by 46%, lifting 716,000 Black children, 820,000 white children, and 1.2 million Hispanic children out of poverty in just one year―a stunning achievement. When Congress let the expanded CTC expire at the end of 2021, all of the gains made were wiped out.

Children out of poverty have better school performance, better health outcomes, and are more mentally and emotionally well-adjusted. Ensuring that the full Child Tax Credit reaches the lowest-income children who need it most will have immeasurable benefits to families and our society for generations to come.

As your constituent, I am strongly urging you to expand the Child Tax Credit in upcoming legislation, and to oppose any tax package that does not include a significant CTC expansion targeted to help low-income families―and then work to enact permanent tax policy changes to bring the full credit to all families with low incomes. Thanks!

OK, you did it again! You helped save democracy! You’re amazing.

Talk soon.

Jess

Chop Wood, Carry Water