Doing the work is the best way to avoid stressing.
But, I happened to see this recently and thought it was worth sharing: a Suffolk University survey that's gotten little-to-no media coverage—and yet, it's a survey tracking ACTUAL(!) early voters, vs. likely/registered voters:
Harris leads Tr*mp by a commanding 63%-34% among the small subset of respondents who have already voted. Asked what they consider the most important issue, 19% of those who have already voted cited “abortion/women’s rights,” second only to “economy/inflation” (25%). Other issues cited were “democracy/constitution” (12%), “honesty/integrity/character” (9%), “immigration/border security” (8%), and “Donald Tr*mp” (7%).
“Harris’ strength among those who have already voted serves two purposes,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “First, large Harris voter leads are being banked every day not only for the office of president, but also for Democratic candidates for Congress and those for whom abortion rights is an important issue. Second, it gives the Harris campaign some time to persuade Election Day voters, including some previously reliable Democratic voters who have drifted away over the past few weeks, like young Black and Latino men.”
Also 63% of those who have already voted are choosing the Democratic candidates for Congress, compared to 33% for Republican congressional candidates, in sharp contrast to all likely voters nationally where 47% are planning to vote for the Democratic candidate versus 45% for the Republican.
Keep fighting—because when we vote, we win...and when we vote early, we win BIG!
I'd have to go back to the survey to see if they have cross-tabs that show party registration for those that self-identified as already having voted. If I find, I will update here.
BUT...what I will say is that while polls BEFORE an election have become less reliable over time, "exit polls" have remained the gold standard. While the 'small subset of respondents' (146 out of 1,000) is not a significant sample size, it doesn't change the validity of their responses vs. likely/registered voters, who only have the intent/potential of voting, as these respondents did actually vote already (or at least self-identified as having done so).
Personnelly, I'd have no way to know R defection rates from such a small subset (even if I do find party registration info)...but there are many, many, many OTHER pointers that it is happening.
I write about the convicted felon's declining support a bit here (along with those other pointers).
I used to be that voter (sorry!); I would just procrastinate and turn in my ballot on Election Day. I always wanted to do as much research as possible on the propositions. They can be so tricky. And the judges/local races. It's not always easy to find info on some of those people.
We went for our poll worker training last night and for the first time ever, our village clerk kept stressing that we have to do everything absolutely "by the book" and to fill out an incident report on EVERYTHING. She is anticipating an unholy fuss from the Republicans after the election and wants to make sure everything in our polling place will be without any ability to criticize. We live in the reddist county in WI so there is justification in her attention to details. It is the first time this has happened in all my years of being a poll worker.
Thank you so much, Jessica, for all the good things you're doing for the country (and my sanity). Just sent the Robert Reich letters, emailed my reps about the hedge fund housing bill (my phone doesn't do resistbot for whatever reason), and shared the Scatton piece on Mastodon.
Thanks for all you do. Please find moments to take care of you through Nov5 - then I hope you'll give yourself a chunk of recovery time!
BTW my Granny Annie Rap: Why Do I Vote? won the SONG category in the Why Do You Vote? film competition. https://www.whydoyou.vote/ has a list of winners in all the categories. There are some really good films to share!
Thank you! I really appreciate that! I've entered another from Granny Annie to a "last minute" category on SCOTUS. I'll post when the entries have been added to their site!
One of the more important tasks we can do right now is help people that have already started the voting process, often requesting but not yet returning their ballots Helping vote chasing and vote curing can be one ofo the most important things right now. Yesterday I was able to help a 99 year old WWII vet cure their ballot in PA. Lots of folks at nursing homes need someone to take their ballots or take them. It maybe one of the most rewarding things I do this round.
You have to scour the websites for each county, find the section on how to assist a voter with a disability. It is literally slightly different county by county. The one form that is consistent across all counties is the designated agent form here https://www.pa.gov/en/agencies/vote/voter-support/accessible-voting.html
So if I have a grandparent in PA and they need help voting and are over 65 then I can complete that form, wrap it around a completed ballot and return it on their behalf.
“We should all be uplifted, too, by Kamala Harris’s remarkable “Closing Argument” speech from last night, as well as the fact that somewhere between 60,000 and 75,000 people turned out to hear it.”
Any idea how many watched it on streaming? Like I did in Michigan.
Thank you so much for the Robert Reich/Red Wave info! I'm forwarding it to a bunch of people. It should help many of us to breathe easier on Nov. 5 -- and perhaps the petition will help to get the facts out on news broadcasts.
My hubby and I, with the help of a wonderful neighbor and a wonderful niece, sent out 4,700 Blue Wave postcards. The time for postcarding is mostly over, of course, but, in addition to continuing to donate more -- and smarter -- than I ever have before, I find myself continuing the fight by talking Dem friends down off the ledge. Just this Monday, I was talking to a friend of mine who, against her better judgment, had fallen back into the habit of getting too much of her election info from news programs, and was visibly jittery as a result. I referred her once again to Simon, et al, and told her to ignore the polls and tune out the noise. She was calmer when our conversation was over.
I have done this so many times over the past couple of months!! The pundits and pollsters do the public a gigantic disservice by adding what Simon calls "junky Republican polls" into the aggregates and generating the horse race coverage they thrive on. They are largely responsible for the anxiety that plagues our side. It's bad enough that the GOP candidates are historically awful and terrifying in their own right; we don't need our emotional health compromised further by political "analysis" that is deliberately misleading and gratuitously alarming. 😖 My hope is that Harris/Walz win so resoundingly that the chicanery of the pollsters and pundits is revealed, once and for all.
I agree. I follow a political science woman called Arlene unfiltered on TikTok and she's fantastic. She keeps yelling at people to ignore the polls. She says "they're useless! Stop paying attention to them!"
I thought you all would enjoy this music video from the Coalition of Labor Union Women (CLUW), “All the Voting Women” (to the tune of “All the Single Ladies”)! With a cameo by Liz Shuler, head of the AFL-CIO! https://youtu.be/BmS0qFhTCVc?si=DJ3L0NBlc0mlc5wJ
Thanks for the Seneca Project American Girl ad. It is truly spectacular. I sent it to all of the young women who are dear to my heart, my American girls.
"If you need a little boost to fuel your efforts in the meantime, watch this glorious new ad from the Seneca Project. I’m not crying—you’re crying!" I'm crying with you, Jess!!
Doing the work is the best way to avoid stressing.
But, I happened to see this recently and thought it was worth sharing: a Suffolk University survey that's gotten little-to-no media coverage—and yet, it's a survey tracking ACTUAL(!) early voters, vs. likely/registered voters:
Harris leads Tr*mp by a commanding 63%-34% among the small subset of respondents who have already voted. Asked what they consider the most important issue, 19% of those who have already voted cited “abortion/women’s rights,” second only to “economy/inflation” (25%). Other issues cited were “democracy/constitution” (12%), “honesty/integrity/character” (9%), “immigration/border security” (8%), and “Donald Tr*mp” (7%).
“Harris’ strength among those who have already voted serves two purposes,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “First, large Harris voter leads are being banked every day not only for the office of president, but also for Democratic candidates for Congress and those for whom abortion rights is an important issue. Second, it gives the Harris campaign some time to persuade Election Day voters, including some previously reliable Democratic voters who have drifted away over the past few weeks, like young Black and Latino men.”
Also 63% of those who have already voted are choosing the Democratic candidates for Congress, compared to 33% for Republican congressional candidates, in sharp contrast to all likely voters nationally where 47% are planning to vote for the Democratic candidate versus 45% for the Republican.
Keep fighting—because when we vote, we win...and when we vote early, we win BIG!
Source: https://www.suffolk.edu/news-features/news/2024/10/21/16/00/suprc-national-poll-10-21
This is great thank you! I assume that means we are picking up a good number of GOP voters?
I'd have to go back to the survey to see if they have cross-tabs that show party registration for those that self-identified as already having voted. If I find, I will update here.
BUT...what I will say is that while polls BEFORE an election have become less reliable over time, "exit polls" have remained the gold standard. While the 'small subset of respondents' (146 out of 1,000) is not a significant sample size, it doesn't change the validity of their responses vs. likely/registered voters, who only have the intent/potential of voting, as these respondents did actually vote already (or at least self-identified as having done so).
Personnelly, I'd have no way to know R defection rates from such a small subset (even if I do find party registration info)...but there are many, many, many OTHER pointers that it is happening.
I write about the convicted felon's declining support a bit here (along with those other pointers).
https://nataliehb.beehiiv.com/p/thoughts-on-november-5-2024
👏👏👏
For anyone concerned about low early voting in California:
1) People may want to wait for vote in person due to all the fu*kery we're seeing around the country.
2) Also, Californians get up to two hours of PTO to vote on Election Day. I wouldn't be surprised if people are waiting to take advantage of that. https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/time-vote-notices
Yeah we seem to always bring it in the end but I still made a video pestering people.
I used to be that voter (sorry!); I would just procrastinate and turn in my ballot on Election Day. I always wanted to do as much research as possible on the propositions. They can be so tricky. And the judges/local races. It's not always easy to find info on some of those people.
We've also got the the World Series going on.
We went for our poll worker training last night and for the first time ever, our village clerk kept stressing that we have to do everything absolutely "by the book" and to fill out an incident report on EVERYTHING. She is anticipating an unholy fuss from the Republicans after the election and wants to make sure everything in our polling place will be without any ability to criticize. We live in the reddist county in WI so there is justification in her attention to details. It is the first time this has happened in all my years of being a poll worker.
Wow. Thank you for doing that work!
Thank you so much, Jessica, for all the good things you're doing for the country (and my sanity). Just sent the Robert Reich letters, emailed my reps about the hedge fund housing bill (my phone doesn't do resistbot for whatever reason), and shared the Scatton piece on Mastodon.
Wonderful thank you, Trina!
Thanks for all you do. Please find moments to take care of you through Nov5 - then I hope you'll give yourself a chunk of recovery time!
BTW my Granny Annie Rap: Why Do I Vote? won the SONG category in the Why Do You Vote? film competition. https://www.whydoyou.vote/ has a list of winners in all the categories. There are some really good films to share!
You're a star! Well deserved!
Awww thank you!!
Congratulations! so glad to hear about your win! I had sent your link around to others.
Thank you! I really appreciate that! I've entered another from Granny Annie to a "last minute" category on SCOTUS. I'll post when the entries have been added to their site!
will keep an eye out!
One of the more important tasks we can do right now is help people that have already started the voting process, often requesting but not yet returning their ballots Helping vote chasing and vote curing can be one ofo the most important things right now. Yesterday I was able to help a 99 year old WWII vet cure their ballot in PA. Lots of folks at nursing homes need someone to take their ballots or take them. It maybe one of the most rewarding things I do this round.
WOW! Where are you getting your vote curing links? is it the one I posted for the DNC?
You have to scour the websites for each county, find the section on how to assist a voter with a disability. It is literally slightly different county by county. The one form that is consistent across all counties is the designated agent form here https://www.pa.gov/en/agencies/vote/voter-support/accessible-voting.html
So if I have a grandparent in PA and they need help voting and are over 65 then I can complete that form, wrap it around a completed ballot and return it on their behalf.
“We should all be uplifted, too, by Kamala Harris’s remarkable “Closing Argument” speech from last night, as well as the fact that somewhere between 60,000 and 75,000 people turned out to hear it.”
Any idea how many watched it on streaming? Like I did in Michigan.
I don't, actually. Wish I knew!
Thank you so much for the Robert Reich/Red Wave info! I'm forwarding it to a bunch of people. It should help many of us to breathe easier on Nov. 5 -- and perhaps the petition will help to get the facts out on news broadcasts.
My hubby and I, with the help of a wonderful neighbor and a wonderful niece, sent out 4,700 Blue Wave postcards. The time for postcarding is mostly over, of course, but, in addition to continuing to donate more -- and smarter -- than I ever have before, I find myself continuing the fight by talking Dem friends down off the ledge. Just this Monday, I was talking to a friend of mine who, against her better judgment, had fallen back into the habit of getting too much of her election info from news programs, and was visibly jittery as a result. I referred her once again to Simon, et al, and told her to ignore the polls and tune out the noise. She was calmer when our conversation was over.
I have done this so many times over the past couple of months!! The pundits and pollsters do the public a gigantic disservice by adding what Simon calls "junky Republican polls" into the aggregates and generating the horse race coverage they thrive on. They are largely responsible for the anxiety that plagues our side. It's bad enough that the GOP candidates are historically awful and terrifying in their own right; we don't need our emotional health compromised further by political "analysis" that is deliberately misleading and gratuitously alarming. 😖 My hope is that Harris/Walz win so resoundingly that the chicanery of the pollsters and pundits is revealed, once and for all.
I agree. I follow a political science woman called Arlene unfiltered on TikTok and she's fantastic. She keeps yelling at people to ignore the polls. She says "they're useless! Stop paying attention to them!"
Good for her!!!
Thanks for this post as always and thanks for the Antonia Scatton piece.
I love her.
Jessica - you've helped keep me sane during this election cycle! Thank you for these daily messages and concrete actions. I appreciate it so much!!!!
I am grateful to get to be of service. Honestly.
I thought you all would enjoy this music video from the Coalition of Labor Union Women (CLUW), “All the Voting Women” (to the tune of “All the Single Ladies”)! With a cameo by Liz Shuler, head of the AFL-CIO! https://youtu.be/BmS0qFhTCVc?si=DJ3L0NBlc0mlc5wJ
That is so adorable and awesome! Thank you!
Thanks for the Seneca Project American Girl ad. It is truly spectacular. I sent it to all of the young women who are dear to my heart, my American girls.
Yay!
"If you need a little boost to fuel your efforts in the meantime, watch this glorious new ad from the Seneca Project. I’m not crying—you’re crying!" I'm crying with you, Jess!!
So good, right?
Squeezed a bit more to the voting call in NC. If we win meck co - we win! Fingers crossed!!!
YES!
If any one is looking to phone bank for NC tonight (or in the next few days) here is a link.
https://nc2024victory.com/1030call_ask
Thank you!
Jess, I am fighting my own shoulder problems. Please DM me if you'd like some exercise recommendations. For now, try wall slides. Good luck!!
My husband recommended this, too. I hate doing the exercises as it hurts. But I guess I should. Sorry about your shoulder!
I find that if I loosen up by taking a shower before I do my exercises it helps. Or put a heating pad on it. It's much worse if I exercise cold.