So glad Jessica is highlighting the Senate race in Nebraska. Dan Osborn has a really good chance of winning against Republican Deb Fischer. The polls show the race is super close and Dan's got a much better ground game going. He's an independent but by taking a seat away from the Repugs, he could be the key to the Dems controlling the Senate. A big deal!
This post motivated me to read his platform and I'm really impressed! I've been spending my donations in my home state of NC but I'm going to make an exception for him.
If you missed Simon Rosenberg's weekly Hopium member call (4pm Pacific, 7pm Eastern, it just concluded) it was INCREDIBLY informative and uplifting. He had guests Tom Bonier (talked about voter registration & early vote data) and Ruben Gallego to talk about Arizona. Tom is the absolute authority. Hint: the numbers are good for Dems! Esp. in Michigan (maybe it didn't help that Trump so thoroughly dissed Detroit??)
And remember all those young women who registered to vote between July 21 and now ??? They are STILL HERE! And they are going to VOTE! Tom and Simon both pointed out that the young male demograpic Trump is courting have the absolute LOWEST propensity to vote! Young women? THEY VOTE! Esp. since 2022! Tom also mentioned that he saw nothing in the voter reg data to indicate young men are voting in any great numbers but saw all kinds of data to prove young (and old!) women are voting in HIGH numbers. YAY for the gender gap.
Simon usually posts the Wed evening gatherings on YouTube sometime Thursday. I encourage you all to view it. It will really provide a lift.
I’m going to vote on Saturday. As an Arab American I don’t think I can vote for Harris. I will vote for Dems further down but I am probably going to write Rashida Tlaib’s name in for president. Harris and Biden have ignored and dismissed people like me all year, and there is so much blood on their hands (with the genocide in Gaza and illegal invasion of Lebanon). I can’t do it Biden doesn’t have to give Bibi weapons or money and he certainly doesn’t have to do that for free. He chooses to do that. I have not heard anything from Harris to make me think my people will be any safer with her in charge. I live in an incredibly blue state there is no chance Trump wins here. I don’t know maybe when she loses Michigan she’ll take us seriously. I will still phone bank. I have things to do on Saturday so maybe I won’t make that one, but I have another on the Saturday right before E Day that I will
I feel you, Omar. Thank you for doing what you can. I suspect that Harris is constricted by her current position from speaking out too much about Palestine and Gaza. Obviously, she has already said things Biden hasn't, but she really can't veer too far from his position until she's her own president. And obviously she has zero power to affect policy right now. I suspect that once she's elected she will be far more outspoken on this topic. If she is elected, that is. I so understand your feelings AND I fear for what will happen to Gazans should Trump win. His viciousness and love for Netanyahu knows no bounds. I fear for Arab-Americans and pro-Palestinian protestors here also. I truly do. I believe his threats to deport them. I believe his threats to shoot them. But I also hear your pain and sympathize with it. It's an awful situation.
Thank you Jessica, I appreciate that VP Harris is trying to be a good number 2 and not shit talk her boss, but is that what she’s doing? I am a Super Dem voter I pay extremely close attention, and I haven’t heard any hints of a different approach from her. I mean she could have said, “it will be a focus of my foreign policy to make sure that all of our allies comply with international law and US law in regards to military and foreign aid without exception. Maybe normies in Michigan wouldn’t have got it, but freaks like me would. I WANT to vote for my party’s nominee. I just don’t know if she will bring any meaningful change to the situation. Hell the English major in me would have accepted if she “Palestine and Israel both have the right to self determination and to live in safety and security. Instead every discussion of Gaza (there is no discussion of Lebanon from anyone here) goes like this: ISRAEL blah blah has a right to exist blah horrors of Oct 7 blah….oh and I guess Palestine shouldn’t be blown up or whatever. I guess.” That is the problem. Palestines and Arabs in general are not after thoughts we are people. We are Americans. Also why do we always have to
start any discussion about Israel
with “it has a right to exist” like it isn’t currently existing. It does exist. The question should be does Palestine have the right to exist? My answer to that is a resounding yes.
I totally sympathize with your choice. But please remember that Trump will be far worse for Palestinians than Harris -- and not voting for Harris is essentially voting for Trump.
This is a really tough one, Omar, and I can only imagine your Hobson's choice. I believe that a President Harris will be more circumspect about this than President Biden, who's had his own Hobson's choices to deal with. I am virtually certain that VP Harris will do more for all stakeholders in the region than the Republican nominee, who sees himself as the only stakeholder who matters. I'd ask that you consider voting for Harris/Walz, but hold them accountable for earning that vote and keeping your support. Any vote otherwise further emboldens the dark forces on the other side.
The ActBlue link that pops up when you want to register for the Dan Osborne event only list 3 levels of contributions and they're all large amounts. Can that be corrected so that we can register and donate at a lower level? Thanks
I am not in the US but this is very informative and inspires action. I am keeping fingers crossed for you all and hope that Kamala wins the day - emphatically!
I've been writing for months about the predictive limitations of polls comprised of a relatively small number of participants; let's say, 2000 responders interviewed to forecast this election in which ~165 million Americans may vote. The NYTimes latest effort to gaslight readers about the current "horserace" is to cherry pick a few current polls to explain the state of the race. Let's say a new polls shows Harris/Trump tied or Harris up + 5%. How many of the 2000 participants does it take to create this variation. 50!!
Which is to say, in the + 5% Harris poll, 100 more participants said they would vote for Harris vs Trump. However, if 50 fewer chose Harris instead of Trump, the poll would be a tie.
The scale is even worse in Swing States polls with 600 participants where either candidate may be up or down 2%. Here the number of participants it takes to create this variation is 6 (either way in their candidate choice).
Journalists can analyze these weak polls and come to an absolute conclusions of fact. For instance, that Black men are abandoning Harris (that factoid might be based on 4 black respondents) or young white males are 60% for Trump (that might be based on 8 white voters under the age of 26).
Why would any of us believe this trend is reality from just 4 or 8 voters.
Especially, in addition to small numbers, pollsters are "smoothing" out their numbers to reach more "logical" expectations.
So, as the grassroots, we will just continue to do what we're doing. Making our own luck!
Registering new voters and Getting Out The Vote. Statistics indicate that postcards mailed to low propensity Democratic voters, increases turnout by 1.5% to 2%.100 million postcards delivered this cycle will generate 1.5 to 2.0 million votes
Just sent another donation to Dan Osborne; I have already voted for Harris/Walz, and urge everyone who can to vote early. We're 19 days away from a great victory!
Re: No Shame At School Act (HR.8477): my wife Elizabeth is a volunteer reading to 3rd graders at our local elementary school. A couple of years ago she quietly approached the elementary school in nearby Middlebury and paid off all the outstanding school lunch fees; this was her idea, as a contribution (anonymously) to support the community - definitely in the spirit of HR.8477.
This is something that could be done in many communities around the country, and directly affects local communities and typically those most burdened by school costs.
Thank you for providing links to Tester's race in Montana. That race WAS totally winnable, and hopefully it still is. National orgs and Dems have largely slept on it. Tester is a 3-term incumbent. Zero reason for him to lose, except that post-Citizen's United, Montana is a great place for the right to buy seats. Cheap. 4th largest state by size, only hit a million in population relatively recently. The Ds ignore it. It's gone from a hopeful purple in 2008 to deeply red now, thanks (imo) to Faux News, money from the right, and neglect from the left. My informal observation in 2020 is that Rs sent about 10x the mail Ds did.
So glad Jessica is highlighting the Senate race in Nebraska. Dan Osborn has a really good chance of winning against Republican Deb Fischer. The polls show the race is super close and Dan's got a much better ground game going. He's an independent but by taking a seat away from the Repugs, he could be the key to the Dems controlling the Senate. A big deal!
Yes, and more importantly he's a pro-choice, pro-union, pro-filibuster reform independent!
This post motivated me to read his platform and I'm really impressed! I've been spending my donations in my home state of NC but I'm going to make an exception for him.
Thank you for all
Of this info!!!!
Of course!
If you missed Simon Rosenberg's weekly Hopium member call (4pm Pacific, 7pm Eastern, it just concluded) it was INCREDIBLY informative and uplifting. He had guests Tom Bonier (talked about voter registration & early vote data) and Ruben Gallego to talk about Arizona. Tom is the absolute authority. Hint: the numbers are good for Dems! Esp. in Michigan (maybe it didn't help that Trump so thoroughly dissed Detroit??)
And remember all those young women who registered to vote between July 21 and now ??? They are STILL HERE! And they are going to VOTE! Tom and Simon both pointed out that the young male demograpic Trump is courting have the absolute LOWEST propensity to vote! Young women? THEY VOTE! Esp. since 2022! Tom also mentioned that he saw nothing in the voter reg data to indicate young men are voting in any great numbers but saw all kinds of data to prove young (and old!) women are voting in HIGH numbers. YAY for the gender gap.
Simon usually posts the Wed evening gatherings on YouTube sometime Thursday. I encourage you all to view it. It will really provide a lift.
I’m going to vote on Saturday. As an Arab American I don’t think I can vote for Harris. I will vote for Dems further down but I am probably going to write Rashida Tlaib’s name in for president. Harris and Biden have ignored and dismissed people like me all year, and there is so much blood on their hands (with the genocide in Gaza and illegal invasion of Lebanon). I can’t do it Biden doesn’t have to give Bibi weapons or money and he certainly doesn’t have to do that for free. He chooses to do that. I have not heard anything from Harris to make me think my people will be any safer with her in charge. I live in an incredibly blue state there is no chance Trump wins here. I don’t know maybe when she loses Michigan she’ll take us seriously. I will still phone bank. I have things to do on Saturday so maybe I won’t make that one, but I have another on the Saturday right before E Day that I will
definitely go to.
I feel you, Omar. Thank you for doing what you can. I suspect that Harris is constricted by her current position from speaking out too much about Palestine and Gaza. Obviously, she has already said things Biden hasn't, but she really can't veer too far from his position until she's her own president. And obviously she has zero power to affect policy right now. I suspect that once she's elected she will be far more outspoken on this topic. If she is elected, that is. I so understand your feelings AND I fear for what will happen to Gazans should Trump win. His viciousness and love for Netanyahu knows no bounds. I fear for Arab-Americans and pro-Palestinian protestors here also. I truly do. I believe his threats to deport them. I believe his threats to shoot them. But I also hear your pain and sympathize with it. It's an awful situation.
Thank you Jessica, I appreciate that VP Harris is trying to be a good number 2 and not shit talk her boss, but is that what she’s doing? I am a Super Dem voter I pay extremely close attention, and I haven’t heard any hints of a different approach from her. I mean she could have said, “it will be a focus of my foreign policy to make sure that all of our allies comply with international law and US law in regards to military and foreign aid without exception. Maybe normies in Michigan wouldn’t have got it, but freaks like me would. I WANT to vote for my party’s nominee. I just don’t know if she will bring any meaningful change to the situation. Hell the English major in me would have accepted if she “Palestine and Israel both have the right to self determination and to live in safety and security. Instead every discussion of Gaza (there is no discussion of Lebanon from anyone here) goes like this: ISRAEL blah blah has a right to exist blah horrors of Oct 7 blah….oh and I guess Palestine shouldn’t be blown up or whatever. I guess.” That is the problem. Palestines and Arabs in general are not after thoughts we are people. We are Americans. Also why do we always have to
start any discussion about Israel
with “it has a right to exist” like it isn’t currently existing. It does exist. The question should be does Palestine have the right to exist? My answer to that is a resounding yes.
I totally sympathize with your choice. But please remember that Trump will be far worse for Palestinians than Harris -- and not voting for Harris is essentially voting for Trump.
This is a really tough one, Omar, and I can only imagine your Hobson's choice. I believe that a President Harris will be more circumspect about this than President Biden, who's had his own Hobson's choices to deal with. I am virtually certain that VP Harris will do more for all stakeholders in the region than the Republican nominee, who sees himself as the only stakeholder who matters. I'd ask that you consider voting for Harris/Walz, but hold them accountable for earning that vote and keeping your support. Any vote otherwise further emboldens the dark forces on the other side.
The ActBlue link that pops up when you want to register for the Dan Osborne event only list 3 levels of contributions and they're all large amounts. Can that be corrected so that we can register and donate at a lower level? Thanks
Good question let me ask.
great news! thanks for collecting the info!
I am not in the US but this is very informative and inspires action. I am keeping fingers crossed for you all and hope that Kamala wins the day - emphatically!
Loved your cartoon/drawing of Jimmy Carter! Shared it with my fellow dems. God bless him!
I've been writing for months about the predictive limitations of polls comprised of a relatively small number of participants; let's say, 2000 responders interviewed to forecast this election in which ~165 million Americans may vote. The NYTimes latest effort to gaslight readers about the current "horserace" is to cherry pick a few current polls to explain the state of the race. Let's say a new polls shows Harris/Trump tied or Harris up + 5%. How many of the 2000 participants does it take to create this variation. 50!!
Which is to say, in the + 5% Harris poll, 100 more participants said they would vote for Harris vs Trump. However, if 50 fewer chose Harris instead of Trump, the poll would be a tie.
The scale is even worse in Swing States polls with 600 participants where either candidate may be up or down 2%. Here the number of participants it takes to create this variation is 6 (either way in their candidate choice).
Journalists can analyze these weak polls and come to an absolute conclusions of fact. For instance, that Black men are abandoning Harris (that factoid might be based on 4 black respondents) or young white males are 60% for Trump (that might be based on 8 white voters under the age of 26).
Why would any of us believe this trend is reality from just 4 or 8 voters.
Especially, in addition to small numbers, pollsters are "smoothing" out their numbers to reach more "logical" expectations.
So, as the grassroots, we will just continue to do what we're doing. Making our own luck!
Registering new voters and Getting Out The Vote. Statistics indicate that postcards mailed to low propensity Democratic voters, increases turnout by 1.5% to 2%.100 million postcards delivered this cycle will generate 1.5 to 2.0 million votes
Just sent another donation to Dan Osborne; I have already voted for Harris/Walz, and urge everyone who can to vote early. We're 19 days away from a great victory!
Re: No Shame At School Act (HR.8477): my wife Elizabeth is a volunteer reading to 3rd graders at our local elementary school. A couple of years ago she quietly approached the elementary school in nearby Middlebury and paid off all the outstanding school lunch fees; this was her idea, as a contribution (anonymously) to support the community - definitely in the spirit of HR.8477.
This is something that could be done in many communities around the country, and directly affects local communities and typically those most burdened by school costs.
FYI- PSA: Katy Stamper is running in District 11 as a Democrat but is actually MAGA - please write in Tracy Verhoeven!!!
Thank you for providing links to Tester's race in Montana. That race WAS totally winnable, and hopefully it still is. National orgs and Dems have largely slept on it. Tester is a 3-term incumbent. Zero reason for him to lose, except that post-Citizen's United, Montana is a great place for the right to buy seats. Cheap. 4th largest state by size, only hit a million in population relatively recently. The Ds ignore it. It's gone from a hopeful purple in 2008 to deeply red now, thanks (imo) to Faux News, money from the right, and neglect from the left. My informal observation in 2020 is that Rs sent about 10x the mail Ds did.