Chop Wood, Carry Water 12/10

The silos are real.

Hi, all, and happy Tuesday!

Navigator Research came out with another report on the election results this morning—this time focussed on the role that abortion played. It’s a doozy!

Most Americans are, in fact, pro-choice. That’s the good news. This report, which focusses on those ever-critical swing voters in battleground states, found that these voters, too support abortion by wide margins. Their feelings about abortion, moreover, informed the way they voted—just not in the ways we would have hoped.

Because these voters often split their tickets and voted for pro-choice lawmakers downballot, but then opted for Trump at the top of the ticket.

But wait, you’ll say. If abortion informed their votes, how could they have voted for Trump?

Because these voters believed Trump when he said “I’m going to leave abortion to the states.” They believed him when he said that he supported “common-sense exceptions.” They believed that he regretted the more stark side-effects of Republicans’ abortion bans. Never mind that “the states” are literally killing women. Never mind that exceptions are almost never used. Never mind that it was Trump, through his Supreme Court picks, who made Republicans’ bans possible.

Voters gave Donald Trump the benefit of the doubt. They just did. Meanwhile, and ironically, they accused Kamala Harris and her proxies of lying by saying that Trump wanted to pass a national abortion ban.

Our abortion messaging about Trump literally sort of backfired on us.

Here’s one Latina Trump voter Navigator spoke to:

They talked about how Trump wanted to ban abortion and not give women the right to choose. This made me mad because Trump clearly talks about how he wants the government to have less control and the states to have the control to vote how they see fit… He may not agree with abortion but agrees that women should have the right to choose and would never stand for a total abortion ban.

Here’s a male Latino Trump voter:

I heard a lot of lies about abortion because it truly isn’t in the hands of the federal government anymore. Kamala tried to make it seem like Trump would have a federal abortion ban but 1. He never said that and 2. That’s impossible because the rights have been given to the states to decide. It made me feel irritated.

Just wild. Here’s a 47-year-old White female Trump/Gallego voter (with some obvious internalized misogyny):

I voted for Trump even though I don’t agree with him on some important issues but thought he would be better than Kamala. I usually vote Republican but this time I voted for some Democrats as well, which is unusual for me. I feel strongly about abortion because I don’t think that’s something someone else should decide for me. I mostly voted for candidates that have the same opinion.

And here’s a White woman in Wisconsin who voted for Trump because she felt he changed his mind about abortion:

Hearing [Trump] take back his abortion comment on Roe v Wade and what his plans are to close the border… made me feel more positive that he is not completely off his rocker.

Could have fooled me.

The craziest thing about the report is its finding, drawn from the same focus group respondents, that these swing voters will be furious if abortion rights are further eroded during Trump’s term:

Elected officials who break voters’ trust on this issue will be viewed unfavorably. Over half (53%) of voters across the battleground say they would be much less favorable to an elected official who votes to ban abortion nationwide. And should Republicans think they can pull one over on voters by chipping away at abortion rather than outright banning it, another 45% of voters still say they would be much less favorable to an elected official who uses existing laws to further restrict abortion access nationwide – and only 15% would be much more favorable to an elected official who did this. Groups that are most likely to have negative views of their elected official for further restricting abortion rights include young women (49% much less favorable), Latinos (45%), Black voters (42%), and independents (43%).

Sigh. It’s not necessarily true, then, that all Trump voters are awful. It IS true that many of them are dangerously uninformed, hugely misled, and wildly naive.

How do we counteract this? Sadly, we will see a lot more horror stories come out of states with abortion bans over the next four years. Those horror stories will start to hit a lot more people personally. Maybe then we will see the recognition dawning on these voters that they have been lied to , egregiously—not just on abortion rights, but on everything.

Hopefully there is something left to salvage by the time they figure this out.

Meanwhile, we’ll keep doing what we do, including making a vigorous effort to break through information silos so we can start to reach Americans who do think like us but don’t understand who Republicans really are.

It’s a long, tough job, but we’re up to it. We have to be!

With that, let’s get to work! And again, if you want to read the Navigator report you can find it here.

P.S. — Yesterday I made the rather horrifying—to me—mistake of calling author Robert Caro “Michael.” Ugh! Thanks to the reader who pointed it out. I corrected it in the online edition but it’ll remain forever wrong in your inboxes. Sorry!

Call Your Senators (find yours here) 📲

Hi, I'm a constituent calling from [zip]. My name is ______.

First, please vote yes on the nomination of Caroline Crenshaw, a current member of the Securities and Exchange Commission who President Biden has reappointed for another five years. She’s great and deserves to stay in her position. [H/T and more info]

Second, I am angry to learn that anti-LGBTQ extremists in Congress are attempting to include bans on health care for transgender servicemembers and their families in the annual defense bill. I am strongly opposed to these provisions and urge the Senator to ensure that these dangerous and discriminatory restrictions—specifically Sections 708 and 709 of S. 4638—are removed from the final, negotiated version of the National Defense Authorization Act. Thanks. [H/T and petition]

Call Your House Rep (find yours here) 📲

Hi, I'm a constituent calling from [zip]. My name is _______.

I want the Congressmember to reject any spending plan that sacrifices critical public services to fund Trump’s massive tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations. This means NO cuts to Medicaid, affordable housing programs, SNAP, clean energy incentives, veterans’ healthcare, the IRS, or Social Security. Congress should be investing in working families, not catering to billionaires and corporations. Thanks. [H/T]

Extra Credit ✅

Here’s a good letter from People Power United that we can send to President Biden and our members of Congress asking them to enact the Equal Rights Amendment. Please send!

Also, Indivisible has joined the “Biden Publish the ERA” alliance, a coalition of organizations and medical associations urging President Biden to enshrine gender equality into our Constitution by publishing the Equal Rights Amendment.

If this is a cause you feel strongly about*, call your representative today using Indivisible’s tool and tell them to push President Biden and VP Harris to publish the ERA.

[*There is a small but reputable contingent of activists and feminists who believe that this is a counterproductive effort. I won’t go into their arguments, and I’m not qualified to weigh in on who’s right, so I am simply making space for those who prefer to sit this action out.]

Get Smart! 📚

Join Navigator Polling for their second post election briefing on Wednesday, December 11th at 12:00 pm ET. They’ll be discussing more battleground survey results.

In addition to the nationwide post-election survey, they also conducted a survey in the battlegrounds to better understand the results of the election in the House. They surveyed 1,500 2024 general election voters from November 2-6 in closely-divided battleground districts. This, I think, is what this briefing will cover. If you’re interested in polling and focus groups, and/or why the election went the way it did, you’ll find this fascinating. I know I do.

RSVP For the Briefing Here

Hey, New Yorkers! 🍎

Good news! I’ve finally launched a newsletter for NY state! It’s called Chop Wood, Carry New York! Like my other state-level newsletters, it’ll be occasional, and will provide simple engagement opportunities (think events, postcarding, calls to representatives, etc.) specific to the state it’s named for.

I’m doing this in collaboration with Lydia Howrilka, an activist and educator based in New York (find her personal Substack here). It should be a great newsletter!

Sign up here!

Messaging! Messaging! Messaging! 📣

Please download and share the below excellent graphic about tariffs from Into Action. Believe it or not, most people don’t fully understand how tariffs work and why they cost us money. (There’s lots of other great tariff content here.)

Give 💰!

Some readers may appreciate my guidance on year-end giving to nonpartisan, charitable organizations or initiatives I know and trust to be advancing the cause of a strong democracy for all. One of those is The Civics Center, which is on a mission to make voter registration part of every high school in America. They provide free training and resources so high school students can, with the support of their teachers, run peer-to-peer VR drives in school twice a year, every year, regardless of election cycle. In this way, TCC is working to reach all of the 4 million Americans who turn 18 every year, so they’re ready to make their voices heard as soon as they’re eligible.

The Civics Center also provides hyper-local registration data, revealing where engagement among 18-year-olds is lacking, and showing the public how High School Voter Registration can improve rates. Because most high schools do not yet accept their responsibility to help all their eligible students register, TCC is urgently working to expand for the 2026 cycle and beyond. TCC is a project of Community Partners, which is a 501(c)(3) organization, so perfect for individual year-end charitable giving, DAFs, IRA withdrawals, and family foundations. A donation link is here.

Win Races! 🗳

Postcards for VA has new postcard campaigns for the Virginia January 7 Special Election to support the two amazing candidates running to maintain our Democratic majority in the Virginia General Assembly: Kannan Srinivasan for SD 32 and JJ Singh for HD 26. All of HD26 is in SD32. You are writing for both candidates in one postcard.

These postcards are targeting specific voter profiles with targeted messaging. Since only loyal voters come out for Special Elections, these postcards are going to what they call "Super Dems."

The three profiles they are targeting are:

1. Voters 60 years old and older with a message about healthcare.

2. Voters in the sandwich generation (40-59) who have kids at home or in college and may be taking care of elderly parents. The message is about protecting healthcare for themselves and their family.

3. Women voters with a message about protecting reproductive rights.

You will get the suggested script, instructions, district profile and more when you download the addresses.

To get addresses, you need to be signed up with Postcards4va. If you need to sign up, click here. If you already write with them, start downloading addresses now.

Chop Wood, Save the Planet 🔥

Do you or a friend want to learn more about the Environmental Voter Project and what they do? Sign up for their “Introduction to the Environmental Voter Project” deep dive webinar on Tuesday, January 7, at 8pm ET / 5pm PT. They'll send out the recording to everyone who signs up but can't make it as well.

Resistbot Letter (new to Resistbot? Go here! And then here.) 💻

[To: your Senators ] [H/T] [Text SIGN PHMQRH to Resistbot on Apple Messages, Messenger, Instagram, Telegram, or by text to 50409 and answer the questions texted back. In minutes, you’ll have contacted Congress or your other elected officials.]

I’m writing as your constituent to urge you to confirm NLRB nominee Lauren McFerran immediately!

The NLRB’s mission is to protect our rights as workers to organize, form unions, and bargain collectively. At a time when workers’ rights are already under threat, we need to do everything we can to safeguard these functions–and that includes not surrendering control of the Board to the same ideologies that are attacking its right to exist.

The Board has long played a crucial role in protecting workers’ rights and helping us hold our employers accountable. We need to do everything we can, right now, to preserve that.

Workers’ rights as we’ve known them for nearly 100 years are under attack. Corporations including Amazon, SpaceX, and Trader Joe’s are challenging the constitutionality of the National Labor Relations Act itself in court. Even OSHA’s proposed heat standard, which would provide rest and water to workers in extreme heat conditions, is under threat.

The bottom line: Working people need a pro-worker majority on the NLRB. Please ensure the swift confirmation of NLRB nominee Lauren McFerran!

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OK, you did it again! You helped save democracy! You’re amazing.

Talk soon.

Jess