Chop Wood, Carry Water 11/6
Remember Shelly Simonds. Always.
Hi, all, and happy Election-Day Eve!
First, I want to thank the many of you who signed up for phonebanking, texting or ballot curing shifts into Virginia after receiving my Saturday plea. I can’t overstate how proud of and grateful for you I am. I know that for many of you talking to strangers about voting puts you way outside of your comfort zones; I see you and I appreciate your courage!
And please remember: your efforts could help flip a seat. So here’s my advice: if you get scared during your calls try repeating to yourself: “Shelly Simonds. Shelly Simonds. Shelly Simonds.”
Who is Shelly Simonds? She’s the Democratic candidate who lost her VA House of Delegates seat in 2017 by ONE VOTE. The winner of that race had to be drawn out of a hat. Her opponent won the draw. And because of the outcome of that one race the House of Delegates stayed in Republican hands for two more years.
Think of how different things would have been if one more person had turned out to vote.
Your volunteer efforts can help find that one vote. Let Shelly Simonds be your inspiration.
In less uplifting news, we got another terrible poll from the New York Times this weekend. It dropped on the same day that we learned more about the unapologetically authoritarian plans Trump’s team is making as it contemplates a second term. It was a one-two gut punch to be sure—I’m sure I’m not the only one who found themselves shaking their heads in fear and disbelief.
But that disbelief, at least, may not be misguided. Read this piece by Mike Podhorzer—a long-time political strategist, former political director of the AFL-CIO, and whip-smart guy. It’s not long—although the piece it references in the first paragraph is lengthier and also worth reading—and I think you’ll find it relieves your stress a bit.
The upshot is what I,
, , , and many others have been saying for ages: IGNORE THE POLLS. They’re useless. They’re misleading. They’re in no way reflective of the results we’re seeing in special elections. They’re also too early to be of any validity.And their very existence is destructive.
The only useful thing? The only thing that matters? The only thing that will determine the outcome of any election? Is what we do.
I know this is hard. And I know that contemplating the possibility of a second Trump term is enough to throw most of us into a state of panic. But we’re not there yet. We’re not even close. We’re here. The day before momentous elections across the country. Elections, I might add, over which we do have a great deal of control.
If we win in Virginia tomorrow that helps our momentum, builds morale, and feeds the narrative that we’re going to beat MAGA. Same if Brandon Presley wins the governor’s race in Mississippi. Same if Andy Beshear wins in Kentucky. Same if we pass Issue 1 in Ohio. Same if we win a Supreme Court seat and hold off election deniers and book banners in Pennsylvania. Same if we win a decent number of municipal races across the country—including some of the 296 involving Run For Something candidates. Same if we hold the New Jersey legislature.
See my point? Polls create a provably unreliable, often false narrative. Elections create evidence-based data. Their results are fact, not speculation or spin.
So let’s put the proverbial wax in our ears one more time, folks, and work to win these races like we’ve never worked before. Yes, we’re tired—exhausted, even—but we’re strong, and our efforts today will pay off in ways we can’t even imagine tomorrow.
We’ve got this. Let’s stay in the day. Chop wood. Carry water. Stay with your feet.
And remember Shelly Simonds, always.
Call Your Senators (find yours here) 📲
Hi, I'm a constituent calling from [zip]. My name is ______.
I want the Senator to vote yes on a temporary rules change to get around Tommy Tuberville’s blockade. I know Senator Schumer is going to introduce such a change to allow confirmation of almost all military nominees as a bloc. Good! I feel less safe in the world because of the almost 400 military promotions Tuberville is blocking. It’s outrageous and unacceptable. The Senate needs to do whatever is necessary to get around his obstructionism—now! Thank you.
Call Your House Rep (find yours here) 📲
Hi, I'm a constituent calling from [zip]. My name is _______.
I am urging the Congressmember to do everything in his/her power to avert a government shutdown and to fund services without cuts before the continuing resolution expires on November 17th. I don’t want cuts to SNAP, WIC, public education, climate programs, Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid. And I don’t want cuts to the IRS either—that’s counterproductive! If you have to cut anywhere cut our bloated military budget. Thanks.
[If GOP add:] And if Republicans can’t keep the government open I suggest they cut their own salaries as well.
Extra Credit ✅
***This is Israel/Gaza related—skip if you want to:
I’m sending the below note to President Biden. While I’m trying to keep my focus here on domestic politics I felt I needed to speak up about the ongoing carnage in Gaza; it feels both barbaric and—especially after listening to this podcast episode—strategically counterproductive. Join me if you like. If you want to edit the below simply copy and paste it into the White House contact form here, then change as needed. If you’re OK with it as is simply text SIGN PANEHK to 50409.
I’m writing the President to ask him to please keep pushing for a humanitarian pause in Gaza. The number of civilian casualties there is not only horrific and ghastly, but will only serve to harden Palestinians’ feelings against the Israelis. We know from past conflicts that the more violence there is against the Palestinian populace the more their support for Hamas builds. This is not the way to peace. Hamas must be destroyed and the hostages absolutely must be rescued, but killing tens of thousands of innocent people to accomplish this is both barbaric and counterproductive. You have leverage over the Netanyahu government. Please use it to ensure that Gazans are able to access aid and medical care. And please keep your promise of vetoing any funding package that doesn’t contain humanitarian aid for Gaza. Thanks.
Get Smart! 📚
Join me along with Walk the Walk USA tomorrow, Tuesday, November 7th at 5:30pm PT / 8:30pm ET. GOTV work will be done and we’ll be waiting for election results, so come hear about what’s next in our plans to retake the House!
We’ll be in conversation with the amazing Pablo Rodriguez, Executive Director of Communities for a New California, exploring the critical role that California could play next year for the future of U.S. democracy.
Sign up here for this special event!
Spread the Word! 📣
Post this on your social media, please:
Want to vote in the critical elections happening across the country tomorrow but feel unsure of who or what’s on the ballot? Blue Voter Guide has you covered! Just go to https://bluevoterguide.org/ , enter your address, and you’ll find all of the information you need to make an educated decision and build your ballot in advance. Remember: an educated voter is democracy’s best defense! Thanks for being a voter!
Win Races—MISSISSIPPI! 🗳
Donald Trump just endorsed Tate Reeves in the Mississippi Governor’s race. That’s because, like Trump, Tate Reeves will continue to divide the state, exclude people, and remain ignorant of struggling families.
Tonight at 6:30 CT, the night before the election, the Southern Poverty Law Center will host a “Call for Change” phone bank for Reeve’s Democratic opponent Brandon Pressley with special guest Waikinya Clanton, their Mississippi State Office Director.
Sign up by clicking here. This is a ONE POINT RACE right now!
Win Races—OHIO!
Help GOTV in Ohio by letting voters know they have a free ride. Phonebank with Rideshare2Vote from 5-7PM CST today: Sign up HERE.
There are lots of other ways to help in the Ohio document.
Win Races—Virginia!
I’ll be at the Swing Blue Alliance phonebank into Virginia today from 5-7 ET. It’s a great one. They’ll train you. This is pure GOTV so you won’t have to do any persuading. Come hang with us! Sign up here.
And remember: Grassroots Dems HQ has incredible guests kicking off phone banks tomorrow: Actor and activist Amy Brenneman at 8AM PT / 11AM ET (Sign up here) and MSNBC Commentator Brian Tyler Cohen on Tuesday from 11-1 PT / 2-4 ET sign up here. If you can't join either of these shifts, come to another shift through Election Day!
There are lots of other ways to help in the Virginia document.
Resistbot Letter (new to Resistbot? Go here! And then here.) 💻
[to all 3 reps] [H/T] [Text SIGN PPBJGR to Resistbot at 50409 or via Apple Messages / WHATSAPP / MESSENGER]
As your constituent, I am urging you to reject proposals to create a debt commission that narrowly looks to cut funding to critical human needs programs—including Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and SNAP. If Congress is serious about tackling the national debt, you would make the ultra-wealthy and multi-billion dollar corporations start paying their fair share in taxes, not cut funding for nutrition, health, and other programs that prevent children from going hungry.
Corporate profits reached $2.8 trillion in 2021, but the corporate income tax is so low it provides only 10 percent of federal revenue. Eliminating tax breaks on capital gains for multi-millionaires could bring in hundreds of billions in revenues. Every year, the richest 1% evades $160 billion in taxes, according to the Treasury Department. That’s money that could have assured adequate funding for WIC and SNAP to help families put food on the table, while expanding access to child care and health coverage. And it could also be used to reduce the deficit.
Please do what is morally right and politically popular and increase—don’t cut—funding for human needs programs while committing to raise revenues by rejecting backdoor attacks via a lopsided fiscal commission. Thanks.
OK, you did it again! You helped save democracy! You’re amazing.
Talk soon.
Jess
Yeah... being a numbers nerd, I was looking through the cross-tabs, and... there was really no reason to publish that poll other than they already spent money on it. The details are pretty unbelievable, and not because I don't want to believe them, but because they are unbelievable. They didn't actually do it state-by-state, the margin of error is huge, the likely voter screen is way off, the swings predicted would be way bigger than anything in recent history, they don't match up with other recent polls or midterm/special results, and - this is key - there are 5% more self-reported Rep-leaning identifiers polled and more than twice as many self-identified conservatives.
They are an excellent outfit, but everyone gets unreliable results once in a while, and - pardon the language, but it pisses me off royally that because NYT has such a readership it is going to freak out a lot of people who are not aware just how far off these results are from likely actual reality.
Thank you SO MUCH for giving us the Mike Podhorzer article that says that political polls are completely useless. They are.
I am a long-time print journalist, and I have been screaming into the void about the other point he makest: The polls are not useful, and are even dangerous. And it doesn't serve citizens to cover political races like horse races. The stakes are too high.
Maybe we should turn some of our attention/energies into "lobbying" media organizations to be more responsible in their reporting. If we unleashed a raft of letters/calls/emails to news organizations pointing out how harmful and not useful this coverage is, maybe editors would think more carefully about future coverage.
I plan to send an email right to the NYT right now.
Thanks for all you do.